TCO in Uncharted Waters?

TCO in Uncharted Waters?

TCO P/NAV Spread to REIT Sector Below -2 Standard Deviations over 1-, 2-, 3- and 10-yr time frames

  • TCO was below the lower end of its 10-year 95% confidence interval vs. the REIT sector on P/NAV as of yesterday's close for the first in the past 10 years.

Disconnected from Reality?

Disconnected from Reality?

While still early, our proprietary single family housing listing data, provides an initial glimpse into the spring selling season. In a nutshell, things look pretty good so far on the ground, which may present an opportunity in Homebuilder stocks.

Choose Your Own Adventure

Choose Your Own Adventure

US REITs, as a group, achieved their highest P/FFO multiple ever in late January 2015 at 17.8x. The previous high was reached at the peak of the last cycle in early February 2007 (17.6x). After peaking in January 2015, the group multiple...

Taking Inventory

Taking Inventory

The inventory of listings of single family homes as aggregated by our data partner, Altos Research, has been in a downward trend this whole cycle in spite of the relative strength in prices and absorptions. We find this trend to be particularly interesting, prompting three key questions...

CONE: A Time to Sell?

CONE: A Time to Sell?

In April 2014, CONE traded below the -2 standard deviation threshold relative to its historical P/NAV spread to the US REIT sector. Since that time, the stock has outperformed the broader REIT sector along with the Data Center group as a whole.

DEI: Is This Time Actually Different?

DEI: Is This Time Actually Different?

DEI hit a rare relative valuation level on Wednesday versus its CBD Office peers. The stock’s PNAV spread to the CBD Office sub-sector breached the +2 standard deviation threshold. This is the first time DEI’s valuation spread relative to its peers has been this high since early 2012 and is only the fourth time it has breached this level in its nine year history as a public company (previous breaches occurred in 2009, 2010 and 2012). Historically, DEI has underperformed peers on 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month bases...

A New Normal?

A New Normal?

Prior to the financial crisis, KIM traded at a premium to the REIT sector on a relative P/NAV basis pretty regularly. However for most of the time since then, KIM has traded at a discount to the sector as the company transitioned back to more of a pure play North American shopping center business model. For the better part of the past year now, KIM has been trading at a premium to the REIT sector...

"Bottoms Up"

"Bottoms Up"

As a follow-up to our write-up last month, we wanted to revisit single family absorptions by price quartile. As a quick recap, the housing market this cycle had been led by the top two price quartiles with the third quartile showing some strength throughout this year’s spring selling season. The bottom quartile had been noticeably left behind. Examining our data partner Altos Research’s robust...